Fact: Most bettors obsess over win rate, but sharp betting asks if you beat the implied probability
A quick search on Google will tell you one needs a win rate of 52.4%, to beat sport book fees, and break even. However, the breakeven point can be higher or lower based on your betting style.
Let’s look at a simple example of why win rate is not the best metric to judge sports betting success.
Joe Bettor vs. Mike Sharp
Joe Bettor has a 60% win rate when sports betting. He is a profitable sports bettor. The average size of his bets is $100 and the average loss is $50. Joe wins 6 out of 10 bets, which nets him a profit of $200.
Mike Sharp, on the other hand, bets with a strategy that gives him an implied probability of 55%. This means the sports book believe there is a 45% chance of Mike Sharp losing. If Mike can beat the implied probability and achieve a true probability of 60%, his net profit will be significantly higher than Joe Bettor’s.
|
Name |
Win Rate |
Implied Probability |
True Probability |
Net Profit |
|
Joe Bettor |
60% |
55% |
45% |
$200 |
|
Mike Sharp |
60% |
55% |
60% |
$1,000 |
Most people are like Joe Bettor. I, however, like to consider the implied probability and aim for a higher true probability.
Focus on Value
Value refers to the odds when you place your bet. If the odds are higher than what’s expected based on the probability of the event happening, then you have good value. For example, let’s say the bookmakers think a team only has a 58% chance of winning, but your model predicts the team will win 60% of the time, then you have good value because the true probability is higher than the odds implied.
Recent Examples
Just recently, on May 21st, the sports book said there is a 28.2% probability The Golden State Valkyries will win against New York Liberty. My model showed the Valkyries have a 55.5% chance of winning. I bet 1 unit on the Valkyries and won 2.7 units.
On May 19, the sports book said there is a 26.4% probability that the Toronto Tempo will win against the Phoenix Mercury. My model said there is a 56.3% probability the Tempos will win. I bet one unit and won 2.8 units.
Underdogs
Underdogs and plus-money bets can offer opportunities for profit. One can combine a solid understanding of implied probability with an eye for value to identify underdog and plus-money bets that are more likely to pay off than they initially seem.
My models use a combination of historical performance data and team statistics to identify underdog teams that have a high implied probability of winning. For example, on the 21st, my model identified the Valkyries as having a 55.5% probability of winning, but the market only offered odds of +279. There was good value in that bet.
My models also use data on market trends and betting patterns to identify plus-money bets that offer good value. For example, if my model detects a mismatch between the true probability and the market-implied probability, I know that there’s an opportunity for profit.
How My Models Work
My models identify value opportunities in sports betting by analyzing a combination of historical performance data, team statistics, and market trends. Here’s an overview of how my models work.:Data Collection: My models collect data on historical performance, team statistics, and market trends from various sources.
- Implied Probability Calculation: My models use this data to calculate the implied probability of each team winning.
- True Probability Calculation: My models also use this data to calculate the true probability of each team winning.
- Value Identification: My models then compare the implied probability and true probability to identify value opportunities.
Conclusion
In conclusion, focusing on value in sports betting is crucial for success. By understanding how to identify underdog and plus-money bets that offer good value, you can increase your chances of making a profit. Remember, my models help you make informed decisions about your sports betting strategy. Don’t take my word for it – check out my other sports betting posts and see the results for yourself.
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Check out my other sports betting posts:
Why You Should Never Buy Sports Picks Without Verified Results
Terry Ebaugh 